Russian Food Sydney The Impact of Conflict and Climate Change on Global Food Security

Introduction

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has highlighted the detrimental impact of conflict on food security. This issue is further exacerbated by the effects of climate change, which intensify factors such as rising sea levels, increasing temperatures, and frequent hazards. The compounding impacts of geopolitical conflict and climate change have the potential to worsen global food security to an unprecedented extent. In light of this, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Richard Marles, emphasized the importance of collaborating with the Indo-Pacific region and beyond to address the challenges posed by climate change and increasing strategic competition.

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Food Trade

Russia and Ukraine are significant contributors to the global food market, accounting for 12% of global food trade between 2019 and 2021. However, since 2022, Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea ports has drastically reduced the export of grain, sunflower oil, and other products from Ukraine. The Black Sea grain initiative, which was established to ensure the safe passage of grain from Ukraine, collapsed when Russia withdrew from the agreement.

The blockade of these exports has led to a surge in global crop and food prices, which were already higher than pre-Covid-19 levels. As a result, hunger and poverty have worsened worldwide, with approximately 345 million people now facing immediate danger from acute food insecurity. Furthermore, disruptions in major shipping routes like the Suez Canal, due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and reduced transits in the Panama Canal, caused by climate change-induced drought, have compounded global food insecurity.

The Impact on the Indo-Pacific Region and Australia

Although geographically distant from the Ukraine conflict, the Indo-Pacific region is also experiencing food insecurity. Even highly food-secure countries like Australia, which is a net exporter of food, are not immune to these challenges. Australia’s open trading policies make it highly susceptible to global food market fluctuations. The conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the effects of Covid-19 and climate-induced disasters like drought, has led to a near-record increase in food prices in Australia. For instance, the global spike in wheat prices resulting from the war has driven up bread and cereal prices in Australia.

Indonesia, one of the largest importers of Ukrainian grain, is also grappling with food insecurity due to the conflict. This situation prompted President Joko Widodo to meet with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky in 2022. During a press conference after his meeting with Putin, Widodo emphasized the urgent need to end the war and restore food, fertilizer, and energy supply chains.

Climate pressures in countries like Indonesia are expected to worsen, particularly as global warming reaches 1.5°C within a decade. This rise in temperature will likely increase the frequency and severity of El Niño events. Indonesia already experienced the impact of an extreme El Niño on its food supply last year, resulting in the burning of nearly a million hectares of land. The country’s 1998 food security crisis led to a significant increase in its poverty rate from 11% to 18% between 1996 and 1998.

India, too, will continue to be affected by climate change, with hazards such as flash floods and the exacerbation of food insecurity due to the Ukraine conflict. To safeguard its food stocks, India implemented a ban on the export of non-basmati rice last year. However, this ban has had downstream effects on countries heavily reliant on rice imports, such as Indonesia. Protectionist measures like these are likely to become more common worldwide as climate impacts worsen. While understandable, these actions ultimately exacerbate the global food crisis.

Addressing Australia’s Growing Food Insecurity

Australia must prioritize addressing its own growing food insecurity by implementing recommendations outlined in the Parliamentary report from the previous year. This report, which is awaiting a government response, proposes the formation of a national food plan overseen by a food minister. The plan would encompass Australia’s entire food system, including production, distribution, and supply chain resilience. Minimizing food waste, which currently costs the economy $36.6 billion annually, is a crucial aspect of improving food security. Enhancing access to existing food supplies, rather than solely focusing on increasing quantity, is essential. With food banks experiencing a surge in demand due to cost-of-living pressures, it is imperative to connect vulnerable Australians with food supplies that would otherwise go to waste.

As global food insecurity worsens, Australia may face pressure to reserve supplies for the domestic market, similar to what has occurred with energy exports. For example, Western Australia’s domestic gas policy requires that 15% of natural gas produced from each export project be retained for domestic use. If Australia were to implement a similar domestic food reserve policy, countries reliant on Australian food exports, such as Indonesia, would be significantly affected.

Building Regional Food Security and Diplomatic Efforts

In addition to bolstering domestic food security and supporting regional producers’ capacity and productivity, Australia should play a pivotal diplomatic role in catalyzing global action. Australia has already allocated $228.9 million in official development assistance for climate-resilient agricultural development and food security for the current financial year. However, unilateral actions and aid alone are insufficient to address the worsening food situation in the region. Australia cannot prevent countries from imposing protectionist measures to safeguard their domestic food supplies, especially in the Global South, where hunger and poverty rates are already high. The Australian Council for International Development advocates for the appointment of a food security special envoy to lead and coordinate Australia’s engagement, both domestically and internationally, in building resilience against food insecurity. This envoy would oversee Australia’s participation in multilateral initiatives such as the Global Alliance for Food Security, which was established in response to the surge in food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Role of Climate Change in Conflict and Food Insecurity

The intersection of climate change and conflict should be considered in Australian Defence Force scenario planning. Climate change should not be solely viewed as an issue that increases the ADF’s involvement in humanitarian aid and disaster relief. Instead, defense planners need to explicitly explore the growing connection between climate change and conflict. Wargaming exercises, aimed at enhancing interoperability among armed forces and civil society agencies like emergency services and the police, have been suggested to address this issue.

The Potential Consequences of Concurrent Conflicts and Climate Change

The world is entering an era where geopolitical and climate risks are increasingly intersecting, with significant implications for global food security. Beyond the conflict in Ukraine, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and geopolitical hotspots like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea could potentially escalate into major conflicts. If multiple conflicts were to occur simultaneously, alongside the accelerating effects of climate change, the consequences for food security would be dire. Major maritime shipping routes could be redirected, further exacerbating global food insecurity.

Conclusion

While Australia alone cannot bring about the systemic changes necessary to address global food security risks, its role as a net food-exporting country positions it as a key player in this realm. In addition to strengthening domestic food supply and supporting regional producers, Australia can play a crucial diplomatic role in mobilizing global action. By collaborating with key states and multilateral institutions, Australia can help build resilience against food insecurity and address the complex challenges posed by conflict and climate change.